Now in an updated edition, this pioneering and authoritative study considers the profound impact of the growing global water crunch on international peace and security as well as possible ways to mitigate the crisis. Although water is essential to sustaining life and livelihoods, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney argues that it remains the world’s most underappreciated and undervalued resource. One sobering fact is that the retail price of bottled water is already higher than the international spot price of crude oil. But unlike oil, water has no substitute, raising the specter of water becoming the next flashpoint for conflict.
Water war as a concept may not mesh with the conventional construct of warfare, especially for those who plan with tanks, combat planes, and attack submarines as weapons. Yet armies don’t necessarily have to march to battle to seize or defend water resources. Water wars—in a political, diplomatic, or economic sense—are already being waged between riparian neighbors in many parts of the world, fueling cycles of bitter recrimination, exacerbating water challenges, and fostering mistrust that impedes broader regional cooperation and integration. The danger is that these water wars could escalate to armed conflict or further limit already stretched food and energy production.
Writing in a direct, nontechnical, and engaging style, Brahma Chellaney draws on a wide range of research from scientific and policy fields to examine the different global linkages between water and peace. Offering a holistic picture and integrated solutions, his book has become the recognized authority on the most precious natural resource of this century and how we can secure humankind’s water future.
Now in an updated edition, this pioneering and authoritative study considers the profound impact of the growing global water crunch on international peace and security as well as possible ways to mitigate the crisis. Although water is essential to sustaining life and livelihoods, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney argues that it remains the world’s most underappreciated and undervalued resource. One sobering fact is that the retail price of bottled water is already higher than the international spot price of crude oil. But unlike oil, water has no substitute, raising the specter of water becoming the next flashpoint for conflict.
Water war as a concept may not mesh with the conventional construct of warfare, especially for those who plan with tanks, combat planes, and attack submarines as weapons. Yet armies don’t necessarily have to march to battle to seize or defend water resources. Water wars—in a political, diplomatic, or economic sense—are already being waged between riparian neighbors in many parts of the world, fueling cycles of bitter recrimination, exacerbating water challenges, and fostering mistrust that impedes broader regional cooperation and integration. The danger is that these water wars could escalate to armed conflict or further limit already stretched food and energy production.
Writing in a direct, nontechnical, and engaging style, Brahma Chellaney draws on a wide range of research from scientific and policy fields to examine the different global linkages between water and peace. Offering a holistic picture and integrated solutions, his book has become the recognized authority on the most precious natural resource of this century and how we can secure humankind’s water future.
Introduction: Our Most Precious Resource under Threat
Chapter 1: The Specter of Water Wars
Chapter 2: The Power of Water
Chapter 3: The Future of Water
Chapter 4: Changing Water Cooperation, Competition, and
Conflict
Chapter 5: Shaping Water for Peace and Profit
Appendix A: Web Links to International Water Norms
Appendix B: Genuine Intercountry Water-Sharing Treaties Currently
in Effect
Glossary
Brahma Chellaney is a strategic thinker and a geostrategist
tracking major international trends. He is a professor of strategic
studies at the independent Center for Policy Research in New Delhi,
a fellow of the Nobel Institute in Oslo, a trustee of the National
Book Trust, and an affiliate with the International Centre for the
Study of Radicalization at King’s College London. He has served as
a member of the Policy Advisory Group headed by the foreign
minister of India and an advisor to India’s National Security
Council.
As a specialist on international strategic issues, he has held
appointments at Harvard University, the Brookings Institution, the
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns
Hopkins University, and the Australian National University. He has
also been a Bosch Public Policy Fellow at
the Transatlantic Academy in Washington, DC.
Chellaney is the author of nine books, including Asian Juggernaut:
The Rise of China, India, and Japan and Water: Asia’s New
Battleground, winner of the 2012 Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book
Award.
This book argues that even though water is of fundamental
importance to humans, we have undervalued it and have therefore
failed to create institutional mechanisms at the international
level to ensure its prudent use. This argument is developed in
detail in five chapters, considering both the scientific and
political implications of water use. Chellaney (Center for Policy
Research, New Delhi) notes the geopolitical impacts of water
shortages on the frequently bellicose behavior of Israel and its
neighbors. The author then provides a credible account of the ways
in which China has become an unprecedented water hegemon. The
reader learns that China's unabated dam building has allowed it to
control the headwaters of several international rivers and
manipulate their cross-border flows. Therefore, concerted external
pressure is needed to get Beijing to accept some form of
institutionalized cooperation. The author concludes that in order
to prevent water-based conflicts, a set of international rules,
cooperative institutional mechanisms, and environmentally
sustainable water management solutions will be needed. Chellaney's
attempts to draw causal connections between water and actual
problems can sometimes be questioned, but his book, while
occasionally repetitive, provides a lucid account of the nexuses
between water security and world peace. Summing Up: Highly
recommended. All readership levels.
*CHOICE*
When the word war is mentioned, most people conjure images of
blood, bullets, and violent clashes over land and oil. Hence,
fighting a war over something as apparently abundant as water
sounds almost surreal, and yet there are places in the world right
now where nonshooting battles are already being waged over this
precious resource. According to international-affairs authority
Chellaney, it’s only a matter of time before tanks roll and lives
are lost in countries struggling to secure enough water for their
citizens. Unless, of course, the world community finds a way to
ensure this universal need is met for everyone. Beginning with the
sobering fact that almost a billion people don’t have access to
clean water, Chellaney gives the reader multiple snapshots of
existing water-related tensions around the world, then offers
several risky, but necessary solutions based on current UN-based
international rules. A clearly written and thorough guide to a
complex problem that, along with global warming, is rapidly
becoming one of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises.
*Booklist*
Chellaney sketches a bleak picture of water scarcity in Africa,
Asia, and the Middle East, regions also struggling with unstable
governments and rapidly growing populations. What Chellaney calls
"water stressed conditions" are also appearing in developed
countries, such as Australia, Spain, and South Korea. Even the
deep-water aquifers that support modern agriculture in North
America are dwindling. But will the social and environmental
stresses of water shortage lead to conflict and armed violence? On
that question, Chellaney's book is more speculative. Conflicts over
water have already embroiled states along the Nile basin, in
Africa, and along the Tigris-Euphrates basin, in the Middle East,
and the war in Darfur has at least partly been driven by clashes
over access to water in Sudan's far west. Chellaney makes it clear
that such conflicts will become more common as water begins to be
"used as a weapon," as a recent U.S. intelligence assessment
predicted, at least in a metaphoric sense, as upstream countries
deny water to downstream ones.
*Foreign Affairs*
There’s nothing quite like water. There’s no life without it and
there’s no substitute for it. But as Brahma Chellaney reports in
his new book, Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water
Crisis, by the 2020s some two thirds of the world’s population will
face problems getting enough of the stuff. In the United States and
other highly developed countries, the battles over water pit those
who want rapid economic development against those who insist on
conservation. (See the long history of California, or just see
Roman Polanski’s Chinatown.) But in many developing countries,
there’s nothing about water wars that’s figurative; they are
ferocious fights for survival. One example: Darfur. And let’s not
even start talking about the Holy Land, where the River Jordan is
neither deep nor wide. Throughout the Middle East and large swathes
of Africa, dams and diversions upstream can be acts of virtual—and
sometimes literal—war against those farther downstream. Chellaney
calls for transparency, collaboration, and sharing across borders.
But given the record of so many international initiatives in recent
years, it’s hard to imagine much action will be taken until the
rich and powerful see their wells running dry.
*Newsweek*
Chellaney’s fine work describes itself as ‘a study of the global
linkages between water and peace,’ but most of the book is an
examination of the connection between water and conflict.
‘Hydropolitics’ promises to become increasingly contentious and
nasty. . . . While Chellaney . . . sees water-related conflict as a
growing international threat, he does not believe that armed
conflict over this one truly indispensable resource is inevitable.
But preventing water wars, as he sees it, will require ‘rules-based
cooperation, water sharing, uninterrupted data flow, and
dispute-settlement mechanisms.’. . . Yes, the world has a water
problem. But it has a bigger problem with authoritarianism. Despots
and dictators will use this liquid gold to disrupt peace,
accumulate power, and force neighbors to submit.
*World Affairs*
This book is essential reading for specialists and for those
wishing to familiarize themselves with the politics of water
resources. Looking at the world from this perspective will help
readers to gain a new insight into many troubling issues now and in
the future.
*Global Policy*
Chellaney synthesizes several decades of research and analysis
across a range of technical and policy fields into a clear, yet
detailed, summary of the emerging crisis around this most basic and
vital of resources, and the potential consequences for human
security and international stability. . . . The strength of
Chellaney’s synthesis lies in the way he combines these well-known
trends with geostrategic analysis. . . . Water, peace, and war are
each hugely complex issues in their own right, and the nexus
between them is even more difficult to grasp, let alone untangle.
In Water, Peace, and War, for once we have an analysis that lives
up to its own publicity.
*Survival*
Chellaney shows in this masterful and comprehensive survey how
wrong we are, and how what was perceived as an inexhaustible
resource has over the past 50 years become scarce. He shows us that
if we do not take care over the next decades, water rather than oil
will become the resource over which there is most anguish and
strife. . . . The book bursts with compelling information. . . .
Chellaney usefully distinguishes between the impact of these. .
.pointing out that even without climate destabilization, water
availability and purity would be gravely compromised by
deforestation, ground-water pollution and altered land use. . . .
[He] uses his mastery of the figures to give us a crystal-clear
insight into the problems we can anticipate if we do not act to
conserve fresh water and regulate its distribution in a fair and
equitable manner.
*Medicine, Conflict and Survival*
The risk of conflict over water is growing ever more severe, and
here, at last, is a book that analyzes water through the lens of
international peace and security. Brahma Chellaney performs an
invaluable service by identifying the multiple causes of global
water stress and showing what must be done if conflict over scarce
and contested supplies is to be averted.
*Michael Klare, Hampshire College*
Brahma Chellaney’s Water, Peace, and War is the first work to make
water the center of its concern and to argue that water is emerging
as a more important issue for the fate of mankind than population
growth, food supply, pollution, peak oil, other ‘peak’ commodities,
and climate change. The author’s writing is fluid, and complex
materials are handled with clarity. This is an excellent
contribution to a tradition of important works that have argued in
one way or another that the world faces some kind of ecological
crisis.
*Andrew Nathan, Columbia University*
Frightened about terrorism? Proliferation? Big power rivalries? You
had better start worrying about water. Brahma Chellaney tells you
why, in a tour de force sweeping in its breadth, staggering in its
detail, and sobering in its analysis.
*Robert M. Hathaway, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars*
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