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Stephen S. Roach has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. Currently the Hong Kong based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, for the bulk of his career he served as the firm's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a jet-lagged resident of multiple time zones, splitting his time between eight Asian countries and his family home in Connecticut.
Acknowledgments. Introduction. CHAPTER 1 A WORLD IN CRISIS. A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy. Save the Day. Coping with a Different Recession. Davos Diary: 2008. Double Bubble Trouble. Even When the Worst Is Over--Watch Out for Aftershocks. Pitfalls in a Postbubble World. Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating. Global Fix for a Global Crisis. Changing the Fed's Policy Mandate. An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama. Dying of Consumption. Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble. A Postbubble Global Business Cycle. America's Japan Syndrome. Whither Capitalism? After the Era of Excess. Same Old, Same Old. Depression Foil. CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBALIZATION DEBATE. Open Macro. The Battleground of Globalization. The Global Delta. Beggars Can't Be Choosers. Perils of a Different Globalization. Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture. Doha Doesn't Matter. Global Speed Trap. Hitting a BRIC Wall? Global Comeback--First Japan, Now Germany. Labor versus Capital. Global Lessons. From Globalization to Localization. Unprepared for Globalization. The Currency Foil. The Shifting Mix of Global Saving. CHAPTER 3 CHINESE REBALANCING. China's Rebalancing Challenge. A Commodity-Lite China. Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge. China's Great Contradiction. Soft Landing Made in China? The Great Chinese Profits Debate. China Goes for Quality. Heavy Lifting. Two Birds with One Stone. Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable. China's Global Challenge. Consumer-Led Growth for China. China's Macro Imperatives. Manchurian Paradox. CHAPTER 4 PAN-ASIAN CHALLENGES. The Next Asia. Rebalancing Made in Japan? From Beijing to Dubai. A Tale of Two Asias. Kim's Boost to Globalization. Japan's Missing Link. India on the Move. The Cranes of Dubai. Asian Decoupling Unlikely. The Korea Test. Asia's Policy Trap. Complacency Asian Style. The End of the Beginning. Another Asian Wake-Up Call. India's Virtuous Cycle. Risks of an Asian Relapse. CHAPTER 5 U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS. A Slippery Slope. Past the Point of No Return. Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy. Who's Subsidizing Whom? Protectionist Threats--Then and Now. The Ghost of Reed Smoot. China's Pace, America's Angst. The Politics of Trade Frictions. A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China:. Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship. Afterword. Sources. About the Author. Index.
Show moreStephen S. Roach has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. Currently the Hong Kong based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, for the bulk of his career he served as the firm's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a jet-lagged resident of multiple time zones, splitting his time between eight Asian countries and his family home in Connecticut.
Acknowledgments. Introduction. CHAPTER 1 A WORLD IN CRISIS. A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy. Save the Day. Coping with a Different Recession. Davos Diary: 2008. Double Bubble Trouble. Even When the Worst Is Over--Watch Out for Aftershocks. Pitfalls in a Postbubble World. Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating. Global Fix for a Global Crisis. Changing the Fed's Policy Mandate. An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama. Dying of Consumption. Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble. A Postbubble Global Business Cycle. America's Japan Syndrome. Whither Capitalism? After the Era of Excess. Same Old, Same Old. Depression Foil. CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBALIZATION DEBATE. Open Macro. The Battleground of Globalization. The Global Delta. Beggars Can't Be Choosers. Perils of a Different Globalization. Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture. Doha Doesn't Matter. Global Speed Trap. Hitting a BRIC Wall? Global Comeback--First Japan, Now Germany. Labor versus Capital. Global Lessons. From Globalization to Localization. Unprepared for Globalization. The Currency Foil. The Shifting Mix of Global Saving. CHAPTER 3 CHINESE REBALANCING. China's Rebalancing Challenge. A Commodity-Lite China. Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge. China's Great Contradiction. Soft Landing Made in China? The Great Chinese Profits Debate. China Goes for Quality. Heavy Lifting. Two Birds with One Stone. Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable. China's Global Challenge. Consumer-Led Growth for China. China's Macro Imperatives. Manchurian Paradox. CHAPTER 4 PAN-ASIAN CHALLENGES. The Next Asia. Rebalancing Made in Japan? From Beijing to Dubai. A Tale of Two Asias. Kim's Boost to Globalization. Japan's Missing Link. India on the Move. The Cranes of Dubai. Asian Decoupling Unlikely. The Korea Test. Asia's Policy Trap. Complacency Asian Style. The End of the Beginning. Another Asian Wake-Up Call. India's Virtuous Cycle. Risks of an Asian Relapse. CHAPTER 5 U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS. A Slippery Slope. Past the Point of No Return. Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy. Who's Subsidizing Whom? Protectionist Threats--Then and Now. The Ghost of Reed Smoot. China's Pace, America's Angst. The Politics of Trade Frictions. A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China:. Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship. Afterword. Sources. About the Author. Index.
Show moreAcknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
CHAPTER 1 A WORLD IN CRISIS 1
A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy
Save the Day
Coping with a Different Recession
Davos Diary: 2008
Double Bubble Trouble
Even When the Worst Is Over—Watch Out for Aftershocks
Pitfalls in a Postbubble World
Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating
Global Fix for a Global Crisis
Changing the Fed’s Policy Mandate
An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama
Dying of Consumption
Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble
A Postbubble Global Business Cycle
America’s Japan Syndrome
Whither Capitalism?
After the Era of Excess
Same Old, Same Old
Depression Foil
CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBALIZATION DEBATE 89
Open Macro
The Battleground of Globalization
The Global Delta
Beggars Can’t Be Choosers
Perils of a Different Globalization
Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture
Doha Doesn’t Matter
Global Speed Trap
Hitting a BRIC Wall?
Global Comeback—First Japan, Now Germany
Labor versus Capital
Global Lessons
From Globalization to Localization
Unprepared for Globalization
The Currency Foil
The Shifting Mix of Global Saving
CHAPTER 3 CHINESE REBALANCING 169
China’s Rebalancing Challenge
A Commodity-Lite China
Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge
China’s Great Contradiction
Soft Landing Made in China?
The Great Chinese Profi ts Debate
China Goes for Quality
Heavy Lifting
Two Birds with One Stone
Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable
China’s Global Challenge
Consumer-Led Growth for China
China’s Macro Imperatives
Manchurian Paradox
CHAPTER 4 PAN-ASIAN CHALLENGES 261
The Next Asia
Rebalancing Made in Japan?
From Beijing to Dubai
A Tale of Two Asias
Kim’s Boost to Globalization
Japan’s Missing Link
India on the Move
The Cranes of Dubai
Asian Decoupling Unlikely
The Korea Test
Asia’s Policy Trap
Complacency Asian Style
The End of the Beginning
Another Asian Wake-Up Call
India’s Virtuous Cycle
Risks of an Asian Relapse
CHAPTER 5 U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS 327
A Slippery Slope
Past the Point of No Return
Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy
Who’s Subsidizing Whom?
Protectionist Threats—Then and Now
The Ghost of Reed Smoot
China’s Pace, America’s Angst
The Politics of Trade Frictions
A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China:
Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship
Afterword 395
Sources 403
About the Author 407
Index 409
Stephen S. Roach has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. Currently the Hong Kong based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, for the bulk of his career he served as the firm's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is a jet-lagged resident of multiple time zones, splitting his time between eight Asian countries and his family home in Connecticut.
"As Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a renowned economist,
Stephen Roach has a solid macroeconomics background, in-depth
understanding of the region, rich knowledge of various industries,
and an open mind. In this book, Steve vividly describes the changes
of Asia -- and the driving forces behind those changes。Furthermore,
he brilliantly points out the challenges Asia is facing, as well as
its impacts on the global economy. Asia is reshaping the global
economy in this post-crisis world, and I believe this book provides
us with unique insights as to how this reshaping is playing
out."
—Dr. Zhu Min, Group Executive Vice President, Bank of China
"Stephen Roach has for many years been a uniquely independent voice
among international economic commentators. He was one of the few
who warned that the debt-fuelled 'casino' economy was
unsustainable. His prophetic warnings came to pass in 2008. In his
latest book he issues another warning. Asia's explosive growth has
been based on a 'bet' upon deep integration with the global
economy. Stephen Roach argues that this growth is unsustainable in
the face of the global recession. The region needs comprehensively
to re-balance its economic model if it is to maintain its
remarkable growth. He warns that this will not be easy. Stephen
Roach's book is essential reading for those who hold the
comfortable belief that Asia has 'de-coupled' from the world
economy."
—Prof Peter Nolan, CBE, Sinyi Professor, Judge Business School, and
Chair, Development Studies, University of Cambridge, UK
"... Roach besticht durch eine klare Analyse und verfügt über
spannende Insiderkenntnisse..."
Welt am Sonntag, 11.10.2009
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