A fast-food chain once tried to compete with McDonald's quarter-pounder by introducing a third-pound hamburger-only for it to flop when consumers thought a third pound was less than a quarter pound because three is less than four. Separately, a rash of suicides by teenagers who played Dungeons and Dragons caused a panic in parents and the media. They thought D&D was causing teenage suicides-when in fact teenage D&D players died by suicide at a much lower rate than the national average. Errors of this type can be found from antiquity to the present, from the Peloponnesian War to the COVID-19 pandemic. How and why do we keep falling into these traps?
James C. Zimring argues that many of the mistakes that the human mind consistently makes boil down to misperceiving fractions. We see slews of statistics that are essentially fractions, such as percentages, probabilities, frequencies, and rates, and we tend to misinterpret them. Sometimes bad actors manipulate us by cherry-picking data or distorting how information is presented; other times, sloppy communicators inadvertently mislead us. In many cases, we fool ourselves and have only our own minds to blame. Zimring also explores the counterintuitive reason that these flaws might benefit us, demonstrating that individual error can be highly advantageous to problem solving by groups. Blending key scientific research in cognitive psychology with accessible real-life examples, Partial Truths helps readers spot the fallacies lurking in everyday information, from politics to the criminal justice system, from religion to science, from business strategies to New Age culture.
A fast-food chain once tried to compete with McDonald's quarter-pounder by introducing a third-pound hamburger-only for it to flop when consumers thought a third pound was less than a quarter pound because three is less than four. Separately, a rash of suicides by teenagers who played Dungeons and Dragons caused a panic in parents and the media. They thought D&D was causing teenage suicides-when in fact teenage D&D players died by suicide at a much lower rate than the national average. Errors of this type can be found from antiquity to the present, from the Peloponnesian War to the COVID-19 pandemic. How and why do we keep falling into these traps?
James C. Zimring argues that many of the mistakes that the human mind consistently makes boil down to misperceiving fractions. We see slews of statistics that are essentially fractions, such as percentages, probabilities, frequencies, and rates, and we tend to misinterpret them. Sometimes bad actors manipulate us by cherry-picking data or distorting how information is presented; other times, sloppy communicators inadvertently mislead us. In many cases, we fool ourselves and have only our own minds to blame. Zimring also explores the counterintuitive reason that these flaws might benefit us, demonstrating that individual error can be highly advantageous to problem solving by groups. Blending key scientific research in cognitive psychology with accessible real-life examples, Partial Truths helps readers spot the fallacies lurking in everyday information, from politics to the criminal justice system, from religion to science, from business strategies to New Age culture.
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Part I. The Problem of Misperception
1. The Fraction Problem
2. How Our Minds Fractionate the World
3. Confirmation Bias: How Your Mind Filters Evidence Based on
Preexisting Beliefs
4. Bias with a Cherry on Top: Cherry-Picking the Data
Part II. The Fraction Problem in Different Arenas
5. The Criminal Justice System
6. The March to War
7. Patterns in the Static
8. Alternative and New Age Beliefs
9. The Appearance of Design in the Natural World
10. The Hard Sciences
Part III. Reversing Misperception
11. How Misperceiving the Fraction Can Be Advantageous
12. Can We Solve the Problems with Human Perception and Reasoning
and Should We Even Try?
Notes
Bibliography
Index
James C. Zimring is the Thomas W. Tillack Professor of Experimental Pathology at the University of Virginia School of Medicine. He is the author of What Science Is and How It Really Works (2019).
In this brilliant follow up to What Science Is and How It Really
Works, James Zimring engages the reader in a kind of detective
story about the classic mistakes of human reasoning, due to our
innumeracy. From bad social policy to pandemics to terrorism, he
shows how human decision making often gets it so wrong. What I
loved most about Partial Truths though is that he didn't just
establish that we make errors, but why. This amounts to a handy,
insightful, eminently readable guide to the intricate evolution of
the human mind itself. If you enjoyed Daniel Kahneman's Thinking,
Fast and Slow, you'll love this book.
*Lee McIntyre, author of How to Talk to a Science Denier:
Conversations with Flat Earthers, Climate Deniers, and Others Who
Defy Reason*
Using the simple notion of a fraction as a lens, James Zimring
insightfully discusses a remarkable variety of issues from
cognitive psychology to New Age beliefs to misunderstandings in
politics. Thoughtful and wide-ranging.
*John Allen Paulos, Temple University, and author of A
Mathematician Reads the Newspaper and Innumeracy*
In Partial Truths, Zimring offers an entertaining and illuminating
look at how we all misunderstand—and how the media and politicians
misrepresent, and even scientists sometimes distort—the numbers and
data that underlie so much of our conventional wisdom.
*David Zweig, author of Invisibles: The Power of Anonymous Work
in an Age of Relentless Self-Promotion*
Zimring’s book Partial Truths takes a walk through the various ways
human cognition fails when dealing with numbers, probabilities,
risk, and assessing evidence. Along the way, Zimring takes us
through a bestiary of fascinating case studies both historical and
modern. His clear prose illuminates the ways that politicians take
advantage of our cognitive shortcomings, the ways that numbers
mislead us in everyday life, and what this means for important
social topics like racialized criminal justice, war mongering, and
public belief in science. While Zimring follows previous authors in
advocating for improved information literacy, he takes a more
measured approach. Zimring is admirably aware of the ways that
human cognition is hard to change, and recognizes that sometimes
our reasoning biases actually benefit us, even as he helps the
reader see these biases more clearly. A great book for those
grappling with the confusion of our modern information
environments.
*Cailin O'Connor, author of The Misinformation Age: How False
Beliefs Spread*
Numbers become far more than abstractions in the capable hands of
James Zimring. I learned something fascinating and enlightening on
nearly every page of Partial Truths – about politics, social
policy, economics, cultural choices, criminal justice, and much
more.
*Steven Lubet, author of Interrogating Ethnography: Why Evidence
Matters*
Zimring does a great job breaking down complex theories of
statistics and mathematical equations into relatable stories and
examples. His perception… is fascinating.
*AIPT*
Partial Truths is a book to read through very carefully and then
keep next to your desk. . . . Let’s all keep help like [this] close
at hand at least until the next time our prejudices are about to
make us decide wrongly or vote stupidly.
*Forbes*
As mathematics (or mathematics adjacent) treatises go Partial
Truths is as reader-friendly and interesting as they come.
*Brain Drain Blog*
The book is easy to read, has entertaining examples, and no math is
required. This book should be required reading for all.
*Choice*
Blending key scientific research in cognitive psychology with
accessible real-life examples, Partial Truths helps readers spot
the fallacies lurking in everyday information, from politics to the
criminal justice system, from religion to science, from business
strategies to New Age culture.
*zbMath*
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